John Tyson
Tropical Storm Francine will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where rapid intensification is now taking place. It will more than likely be a hurricane upon approach to landfall in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The water temperatures are highly elevated—almost rocket fuel in character—and this will ensure that the storm is strong before it reaches the shore. A possibility with Francine’s germination is heavy rain, flash flooding, and dangerous storm surges. Residents across the Gulf Coast are bracing for the worst, knowing full well the totality of devastation such storms can bring.
Francine’s Path and Forecast
Francine started to intensify just off of the Texas Gulf Coast, under conditions that were very, very favorable for further development. These warm waters in the Gulf would give lots of energy to the storm in its intensification. Models indicate that Francine was likely to escalate into a hurricane by the time it arrives at the Louisiana coast. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center said Francine was moving north-northeast at 8 mph, with sustained winds of 65 mph.
Meteorologists predict that Francine is going to hit Louisiana and then continue further inland towards Mississippi. Heavy rains are expected along with blustery winds, and a possible storm surge as high as 10 feet in some areas. Normally laid-back coastal towns have prepared at a moment’s notice for an order to leave. If it makes landfall, parts of Louisiana—still reeling from the onslaught of past hurricanes—will experience winds that will blow over 100 mph.
Potential Impacts on the Gulf Coast
But hurricanes are no strangers to the Gulf Coast’s destructive forces. In its projected path of attack is Texas and Louisiana. Francine is forecast to wreak some real blowamage along both coasts and inland. But among some of the biggest threats are deadly storm surges with massive flooding.
The amount of rainfall is expected to reach as high as 12 inches in some Louisiana coastal areas. Flash flooding is, by the same token, still very much a concern, especially for the low-lying areas. Communities such as Cameron, which have weathered several hurricanes over the decades, brace themselves for the worst. They stockpile provisions, board up windows, and prepare evacuations in case they would be needed. The State of Louisiana has already issued early warnings for its residents to prepare for what’s on the way.
Energy Companies and Evacuations
In the meantime, energy companies are evacuating offshore oil sites in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the storm. At least four Texas ports, including Brownsville and Galveston, have partial or full closures. That may indeed include long-term economic consequences as oil production stops with these, among other measures taken to mitigate the damage.
This has been a routine removal of oil workers in storms like Francine, but this gives ample cause for concern. The Gulf of Mexico contains a large percentage of energy production in the United States, and long-term shutdowns could have trickle-down effects throughout the country. More personally, local economies along coasts may be in danger as companies shut their doors and people evacuate the area out of danger.
Residents Brace for Impact
Hurricanes, though, are as much a part of life on Louisiana’s Gulf Coast communities as the refineries along the Mississippi River. Four years after major hurricanes swamped the state, people in coastal Cameron Parish, virtually wiped clean back then, are preparing for another possible direct hit this weekend. Many can’t help their deep love of the lifestyle and beauty the area affords.
Rick Momin is one of many in this small coastal town preparing for Francine. “Every year we know somebody is going to get hit,” he says. “We have to take what comes.” Momin’s attitude reflects the resilience of many Gulf Coast residents – many have lived through storms before and understand the dangers. But officials continue to urge people to evacuate if possible, especially in areas where storm surge and flooding is likely.
Francine’s Historical Context
Francine is the sixth-named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, making landfall off the back of Ernesto which dissipated at the end of August. So far the Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet but meteorologists are warning ‘conditions are very conducive for more storms’.
Francine is a part of a larger tapestry of storm activity crossing the Atlantic this year. Two other systems continue to be monitored by the National Hurricane Center, either of which could develop into tropical storms. One of those has a 40% chance of formation over the next 48 hours while the other has a 70% chance over the next week. Thus far, hurricane season is proving itself to be far from over in the Atlantic and, for that matter, the Gulf Coast.
The Impact of Warm Gulf Waters
One of the factors behind Francine’s very quick intensification has been the downright toasty water temperatures in the Gulf. Meteorologists have called it rocket fuel for the tropical storms, and it is this warm water that feeds the energy the storms need in order to expand. And Francine is surely feasting on that richness of heat.
The warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are likely to be making it a rapidly intensifying storm. National Hurricane Center warns that Francine might be a strong hurricane before making landfall, this course of path for the storm is not unusual as water temperatures in the Gulf are often hotter than compared to other areas of the Atlantic.
Preparing for Flooding and Tornadoes
Aside from the showers and gusts of wind, the most likely thing that Francine will bring about is tornadoes. The National Weather Service alerts many parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle of a common threat whenever there are hurricanes: tornadoes which may bring more destruction.
Those in those areas should continue to monitor and be ready to take shelter if need be. Tornadoes can develop very fast, with almost no warning whatsoever and are some of the most hazardous aspects of a hurricane. The tornadoes, combined with flooding and storm surges, make Francine one of the most dangerous storms to hit the Gulf Coast.
Residents along the Gulf Coast could be looking at the worst case: The storm is forecast to reach hurricane force before reaching land, bringing potentially calamitous winds, deluges of rain, and a tornado threat. Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi are all on high alert; evacuations are being contemplated.
Francine is one in the line of tropical storms currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center, that grimly reminds that at least on the Atlantic side, hurricane season is anything but over. In this regard, residents in these areas are called upon to take proper precautions, being well-informed as Francine strengthens further.
The already hurricane-savvy Gulf Coast prepares once again for the worst. Still, many have elected to remain in their homes and ride the storm out, officials urge caution. Throughout the days ahead, the next few days will be most valuable in determining the complete impact of the storm that Francine brings.
